294
Edges flagged
across 7 categories · 90 days
Prediction-market intelligence
Read the math.
Read the math.
Not the narrative.
Meet Scout — our AI analyst. It runs the numbers on thousands of prediction markets, paper-trades every edge it finds in public, and sends you the short list worth your money. Honest record, every category, wins and losses. For less than a coffee a week.
7 market categories tracked
$0 to start · no card
100% advice-only · Scout never places a bet
SCOUTLIVE
AI analyst · paper-trading
▲ +$492
up · $20 flat per pick · last 90d · sample
161PICKS UP
133PICKS DOWN
54.8%HIT RATE
⚠ Preview build. Numbers below are illustrative sample data — Scout's live ledger turns on the moment the edge lanes finish wiring. We publish the real record, wins and losses, when it's real.
If you'd staked $20 on every Scout pick
▲
+$492
up
Last 90 days · $20 flat per pick · Paper-traded · Wins & losses included · Sample
161Picks UpWinning selections
133Picks DownLosing selections
294Total PicksEvery call, logged
54.8%Hit RateShare that landed
+8.4%ROI · 1u flatReturn on stake
0.223Brier ScoreLower is sharper
Every recent pick — money up (green) or down (red)
Winning Picks
Knicks vs Spurs · Knicks MLWIN+$18
Chiefs −3.5 vs BillsWIN+$18
Gov shutdown before Q2WIN+$17
Losing Picks
Fed rate cut · March 2026LOSS−$20
CPI over 3.2% · FebruaryLOSS−$20
Best Picture · favoriteLOSS−$20
Winning Picks
BTC > $70k by year-endWIN+$21
Lakers ML vs NuggetsWIN+$19
FOMC · hawkish holdWIN+$18
Paper-traded results · not financial advice · past performance is not indicative of future results.
Scout's ledger
The whole track record, in the open.
No cherry-picked screenshots. Every edge Scout flags is logged, paper-traded at the closing line, and scored. This is the number that matters: does the math actually beat the market?
54.8%
Hit rate vs implied
beats the no-vig line
+8.4%
ROI · 1u flat
+24.6u banked (paper)
0.223
Calibration · Brier
lower is better · well-calibrated
Scout's journey
Follow the whole run, live.
Scout is a public AI analyst — watch the equity build, check how well-calibrated the calls are, and see the newest edges as they post.
Equity curve
paper · 1u flatCumulative units, last 90 days
Scout equity+24.6u*
Calibration
Brier 0.223Predicted probability vs actual — closer to the line is better
PerfectScout
Recent edges
sampleLatest calls Scout posted
TODAY · 9:02 AM
BTC ≥ $70,000 this week
Model 41% · Mkt 35%+6% edge
TODAY · 8:30 AM
NYC high ≥ 88°F Saturday
Model 64% · Mkt 55%+9% edge
YESTERDAY · 4:15 PM
Fed holds rates in March
Model 58% · Mkt 63%fade · NO
LIVE · updates through the day
Per-category counters
Where Scout is sharp — and where it isn't.
This is the product: an honest scoreboard for every market type Scout covers. If a category is losing, you see red. That's the point — you bet where the edge is proven, and sit out where it isn't.
₿Crypto price levels
EDGE34–27 W–L
Hit rate55.7%
ROI 1u+8.2u
Edge avg+6.1%
🌡Weather / temp
EDGE41–33 W–L
Hit rate55.4%
ROI 1u+6.1u
Edge avg+5.3%
🏀NBA moneyline
CAUTION22–24 W–L
Hit rate47.8%
ROI 1u−2.3u
Edge avg+3.0%
🏀WNBA moneyline
EDGE18–14 W–L
Hit rate56.3%
ROI 1u+3.9u
Edge avg+5.8%
⚾MLB moneyline
CAUTION29–31 W–L
Hit rate48.3%
ROI 1u−1.1u
Edge avg+2.6%
🏛Politics / econ
EDGE12–9 W–L
Hit rate57.1%
ROI 1u+2.4u
Edge avg+4.4%
How Scout works
Four steps. No hunches.
Scout is powered by our own engine — it computes its own fair value from market structure and free live data, not tips or copied wallets.
1
Scans the board
Thousands of Kalshi & prediction markets, refreshed continuously — crypto levels, weather, sports, politics.
2
Prices the truth
The engine models each market's real probability from live data and quant math, then strips the vig to find the fair line.
3
Paper-trades the edge
Every mispricing is logged and settled at the close — building the public, category-by-category record above. Scout never risks a cent.
4
Sends the short list
Each week you get the handful of picks with a real, proven edge — in plain language a beginner can act on.
Why not just ask an AI?
"Why pay for this when I can just ask ChatGPT?"
Fair question — and the honest answer is exactly why Scout exists. Scout isn't "smarter" than the big AI models; it uses one for the plain-English "why." But for finding a real, provable edge, a raw chatbot structurally can't do the job.
Ask ChatGPT / Claude directly
- No live data. Frozen at its training cutoff — it can't see tonight's odds or scores.
- Makes up the number. It will confidently invent a probability; you can't tell a real one from a guess.
- No track record. Nothing to check — no wins and losses, no calibration.
- Always answers. It never tells you to sit one out, even when it should.
- You do it by hand, one market at a time, feeding it data it doesn't have.
Scout
- Live data. Pulls real market odds + real results the moment you ask.
- Every number is computed — no-vig, EV, Kelly — reproducible, never invented.
- Public, calibrated record. Beats a coin flip on hundreds of real games — wins and losses, in the open.
- Knows when to pass. It flags and refuses a "too good to be true" edge instead of chasing it.
- Always on — thousands of markets, 24/7 — and it emails you only the short list.
LLMs are the brain. The edge is the live data, the math, and the proof wrapped around it — which is exactly what a prompt can't give you.
Daily best bets
One email. The edges that matter.
Every morning Scout sends the short list — each pick with the model's probability, the market's price, and the edge.
✉
KalEdge Daily DigestToday · top edges across 7 categories
7:00 AM
BTC ≥ $70,000 this week
Spot momentum + low realized vol read richer than the market's price.
41%
mkt 35%
NYC high ≥ 88°F Saturday
NOAA + Open-Meteo consensus runs hotter than the temp market.
64%
mkt 55%
Fed holds rates in March
Market prices the hold too rich — the model says fade it.
58%
mkt 63%
Pricing
Start free. Upgrade when Scout earns it.
Free
$0
Follow Scout's public journey and learn the ropes.
- Live ledger + all category counters
- One free pick per week
- The plain-English "why" behind it
MOST POPULAR
Scout Weekly
$9 /mo
Every edge Scout finds, the week it finds it.
- All picks, every category, every week
- Edge %, fair line & confidence on each
- Email the moment a fresh edge lands
- Full calibration & history export
Scout Pro
$29 /mo
For the serious bettor who wants the raw signal.
- Everything in Weekly
- Real-time API + webhook feed
- Kelly staking & bankroll tools
- Ask Scout: AI analyst chat over the data