Scanner lights up three structural mispricings in macro futures

Three market dislocations just hit the scanner. Here's what the math is telling us about 2026.

First signal: Fed 25bp cut in June 2026 is priced at 54% but the exclusivity constraint analysis shows 7.3% edge with 91% confidence. That's a structural gap between what the market's pricing and what the constraint math reveals. Second: Nasdaq above 20k by May 2026 — both YES and NO are independently underpriced, which almost never happens in liquid binary markets. That's a guaranteed-value play showing 6.2% edge with perfect confidence. Third: CPI above 3.0% YoY in April trades at 39% but inflation volatility decomposition suggests mispricing of 4.1% edge at 82% confidence. All three hit my scanner in the last 24 hours. These aren't predictions — they're mathematical dislocations between market prices and measurable constraints.

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